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[Music] if we’re focused on polls we’re focused on the wrong things uh at the end of the day the folks that I’m talking to aren’t worried about whether or not we win or lose they’re worried about their country the political tide goes in the political tide goes out that that’s that’s the reality and you know so we’re we’re swimming into the tide it’s it’s tough I don’t focus on polls I focus on my community I focus on the voice of Milton just work harder and just make sure that you get the word out on the work that you are doing you know I mean I there’s no magic formula to this I’m going to be convincing my constituents they should still be voting for me you vote for a person on the ballot not a party a sampling there of liberal MPS and ministers responding to questions from reporters as the house Rises for the summer and they had backed to their constituencies about a succession of polls that have come out this week that show the Liberals are no better off in public opinion than they were six months ago let me give you a quick sampling of the first comes from Abacus which has the Tories up by 20 points Angus Reed they’re up by uh 21 ipsos they’re up by 18 this is the Tories over the Liberals and the Nanos tracker has them uh 14 points ahead let’s bring in our front bench talk about what you just heard as a response to those numbers and the numbers themselves joining me this evening s Salam is the vice president and practice lead of public affairs at National Public Relations former Alberta MLA and cabinet minister Gary Maher is with us he’s the president in CEO of the Canada West Foundation former Ontario NDP MPP gron Singh is here he’s now vice president at Crestview strategy also we always disclose the brother of federal NDP leader jug meet Singh and ra Walsh rounds us out tonight she’s a senior political reporter with the glob in mail hey everybody good to good to see you here from Edmonton Ma I’ll start with you because if I recall it was your story uh at the outset of the big budget roll out uh that that garnered quite a bit of reaction which was that liberals internally were saying they would like to see a five point swing towards them because of what they were putting out there by the end of June into the summer season here we are at that point it doesn’t seem to me that the numbers have swayed the way they wanted what are you hearing about their reaction to that well I think you see a lot of liberals pointing to the Nanos pole which is as you laid out the most uh optimistic for them but there’s no doubt that when you average it all out it’s still not a good picture and they are not just fighting the political G gravity of the sort of Swing between changes in governments that every sort of we see in Canadian elections every 8 to 10 years but they’re also dealing with a leader who um in a turn of events is now pulling below his party and that’s really significant because Justin Trudeau was always championed as somebody who would sort of be ahead of the Liberals bringing the Liberals along with him and now he according to the polling is a drag on the party’s numbers so that is significant for them it’s it’s sort of another thing for them to Grapple with and I I think um you know it was interesting watching the spin of some of those MPS that people don’t vote for parties I’m not sure that that is correct based on on what we see um I thought Sean Casey was likely sort of the most Frank and and straight up with with what they’re facing which is Tide say if you’re grasping on to a 14o deficit rather than 20 point deficit what does that say I don’t think it makes too much of a difference at the end of the day they’re both double digits and especially right now with such a tough political climate and also the house Rising the Liberals are going to have a challenging time so what they’re going to have to strategize and focus on is really getting back to the constituencies going hand toand and meeting people where they are and speaking to voters and trying to drum up as much support as they can now one thing that I think is very interesting to focus on is the upcoming St Paul’s byelection I know many times people say that byelections are not indicators of the outcome of a general election but this byelection is really one to watch especially given the fact that you have won a very formidable liberal candidate running in the writing this is a former Chief of Staff to Deputy Prime Minister of Freeland so she is very well connected not just to the dpmo but the prime minister’s office as well two it’s it’s a liberal stronghold it is a and has been a liberal stronghold for quite some time so depending on the outcome of that byelection we may see some very tough conversations that happen in the pmo uh because this is again a very high-profile candidate who would be running for the liberals so I’m very interested and I have my eyes particularly on that byelection but it’s just something that um the the Liberals have to really focus on when when it comes to their their next steps and strategy going forward do you think it changes narrative or strategy Gary heading into the summer since it is such a a liberal stronghold like if they were to come close to lose or or lose itself it would be a big deal any other outcome does it really change anything going into the summer well let me say first of all you’re in Edmonton and I’m in Alberta and I’m desperately trying to grow a playoff beard to cheer on the Edmonton Oilers uh let’s see let’s let’s see how that goes first of all let’s go let’s go with that first so uh you know I think that um you know if the Liberals lose uh the byelection that would be a serious uh that would be a serious blow to uh to to the government I don’t expect them to but everything’s possible and let me say that you know the the strength that the that the conservatives have shown in this polling I think it’s largely because they’ve been focused on three or four things they’ve been F focused on Building Homes they’ve been focused on axing the carbon tax they’ve been focused on stopping crime and fixing the budget and I think that the Liberals are trying every everything that they can find and it looks like they’re grasping at a whole bunch of uh different issues to try and uh get themselves a you know above water but the conservatives have a better social media presence uh the Liberals have set traps for them in the last uh you know in the last couple of months of the of the house and uh they haven’t taken the bait and they’ve allowed uh external critics uh to be the critics of things like uh the online harms Bill and uh and the capital gains tax so you know I wouldn’t put too much into this byelection but for sure if uh if the Liberals lose this given the candidate and given how long it’s been held that would be a serious problem for for the government but keep in mind that we are still a long ways from an election uh Lots can happen between in October of next year uh but for this summer um depending on what MPS here uh you know on the barbecue circuit on the parade on the parade stance um it it may be an indicaa of uh the uh the difficulty that the Liberals have uh with Justin Trudeau uh leading them into the next election well I’ll just pick up on one point Gary made he referenced gin the capital gains tax right which was politically meant to be a wedge particularly with the conservatives Angus Reed puts out a poll today that shows a full fifth of Canadians which is not the 0.13% or even the 4% that Jack Mintz was saying might be affected a fifth of Canadians think that this is going to impact them what does that tell you about how this ended up working for the government I think it’s another example of the liberal government being unable to communicate policy that actually could have a benefit towards investing in public services and and helping to strengthen things like healthcare and more it’s a added to the list of things alongside the price pollution the carbon tax and the many other miscommunications that this government has had so I think it just it demonstrates the government’s lack of ability to really get ahead and really own the narrative and in addition it’s it’s also the inertia of nine years of dissatisfaction with the Liberals and it feels like no matter what they put forward there are people who are there’s just such a large uh contingent of Canadians who are dissatisfied with whatever the Liberals really put forward okay on that note we’re going to talk about something else the Liberals put forward today the federal government announced that they’re going to list the irgc as a terror entity the five of us will be back in just two minutes to talk about why now
Saeed Selvam, Gary Mar, Gurratan Singh and Marieke Walsh on the outlook of polling numbers as the house rises for the summer.
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