Purdue's preseason predictions weren't pretty. And there's a strong feeling around West Lafayette, this Boilermakers team may be better than last year's 4-8 version, but the record may not reflect that because of a daunting schedule which features four of the nation's top nine teams.
To get caught up on fall camp's impressions and vibes heading into Saturday's opener vs. Indiana State (noon, BTN), Purdue Insiders Nathan Baird (IndyStar) and Sam King (Journal & Courier) provide their insights.
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IndyStar sports editor Matthew Glenesk: The Boilermakers placed 18th out of 18 in multiple preseason conference rankings, a distinction that didn't go unnoticed in West Lafayette. First, did those last-place predictions surprise you, and second, why do you think there's such little faith in this team?
King: It was surprising when you take 18 of 18 as a whole. The way many preseason polls are tallied rewards one outlier where someone votes a team much higher than other voters. Purdue likely was picked in the 13-18 range by almost everyone, which is fair. On talent alone, Purdue is much closer to 13th in the Big Ten than 18th. When you glance over Purdue's schedule though, there's really only one game you can circle and say that is a for sure victory (Aug. 31 vs. Indiana State). Not many realistically predict a 4-8 team that had issues in all three phases last season to win against Notre Dame, Oregon, Ohio State or Penn State, and Purdue has the unenviable task of playing them all. I'm also convinced Purdue is cursed against Wisconsin. That leaves six other "toss up" games and if Purdue wins half of those, this season will be a repeat of last year. Other teams in that lower tier of preseason Big Ten polls appear to have more favorable schedules. There's something to be said about scheduling tough, and former coach Jeff Brohm was a big believer in it, but it may have benefited Purdue to have an easier nonconference slate in 2024.
Baird: I was not surprised some analysts voted Purdue so low. They know about last season's 4-8 record. They know the most immediate NFL prospect, Nic Scourton, transferred out. They know Hudson Card was solid but not spectacular last season. Some of the other teams predicted to finish near the bottom of the Big Ten may be getting more benefit of the doubt due to the energy of first-year coaches, easier schedules or other factors. I was surprised the pessimism was so widespread, though, and I think it's wrong. This certainly does not feel like the worst collection of talent in the Big Ten. However, I also think it's possible Purdue is clearly better in multiple ways and still ends up with a record similar to last season. Those four preseason top-10 opponents don't leave a lot of room for error in the other seven games vs. FBS teams.
Glenesk: About that brutal schedule, there's no Big Ten West security blanket. In this new free-for-all, the Boilers drew the short straw. It's obviously affected expectations for the group, but what's the vibe from players/coaches?
Baird: If Ryan Walters had a time machine, I doubt Purdue would play at Oregon State this season. The nonconference schedule should probably always include one other power conference team. Two seems heavy, especially considering the cohort of Big Ten opponents the Boilermakers were assigned. (Next year's batch is almost as tough.) At the same time, outside of Notre Dame, Penn State, Oregon and Ohio State, no one else on this schedule belongs in a different tier of college football. The returning players know they can compete with Nebraska, Illinois, Northwestern, Michigan State and Indiana. (And that losing streak to Wisconsin has to end sometime, right?) The new players should be eager for the chance to prove themselves against anyone. This season can still end up in a bowl if Purdue does something it did not do enough last season — finish off winnable games.
King: The players and coaches are going to say the right things, calling games against some of college football's upper echelon programs an opportunity to prove themselves against some of the best. However, there's no other option. That gauntlet is coming either way. Oregon State isn't an unbeatable opponent and Purdue did win the last meeting three years ago. Though it's early, that looks like a pivotal point in the season. Win and Purdue is probably 2-1 entering conference play. One thing about Ryan Walters, he believes he's going to win every game and it's not just lip service. The guy exudes confidence. The players and other coaches see that.
Glenesk: Obviously if Purdue is going to compete, it'll need improved play from Hudson Card. He's one of the few returning starting QBs in the Big Ten. How's his offseason/fall camp been like? What's the feel about what 2024 will look like for him (or needs to)?
King: I think more importantly, Purdue needs a healthy Hudson Card. He was playing through busted ribs and a shoulder injury last season. He probably felt his best after taking a game off, then returning for Indiana and ended the season looking like the QB we’d heard about. Card is also just more comfortable now. Other than a brief role as an injury fill-in starter at Texas, he hadn’t had meaningful game reps in his career until last season. Everyone at camp who has mentioned Card has professed he’s better than last season. Purdue will need him to be because he’s a guy who can be the difference in close games.
Baird: Purdue helped him by acquiring more weapons — and some of them have had impressive camps. Jahmal Edrine is not new, but he missed last season with injury. He is intriguing as a big-body receiver who could be physical and make important third-down catches. CJ Smith has been out hurt, but can bring an elite speed option to the slot. Card will need to be more efficient than last season, though. He needs to challenge for the upper third in the Big Ten in efficiency rating, yards per attempt — stats which show a passing game combines consistency with explosiveness. He's been solid in camp, putting the ball where it needs to go and showing the command of the offense you'd expect in his second season with offensive coordinator Graham Harrell. After Purdue established the run so effectively last season, can Card capitalize off of that with these improved weapons?
Glenesk: Speaking of establishing the run, is this the year Purdue has a 1,000-yard rusher?
King: Short answer is no. It's not because Purdue doesn't have a capable running back. If Devin Mockobee or Reggie Love III were a primary every-down back, either could rack up 1,000 yards. Mockobee nearly did two years ago while only playing a portion of the season as the No. 1 back. But what we saw in Graham Harrell's offense last year showed Purdue prefers to have at least two backs sharing the reps. It worked well with Mockobee and Tyrone Tracy Jr. and actually proved to be a strength while shunning the notion that air raid means strictly throwing the ball all over the field. It can work in much the same way with Mockobee and Love. Hudson Card's running ability also is a factor. Mockobee handled 37.8% of the carries, Tracy had 24.5% and Card was at 20.1%. That's more than 82% of the carries spread between three players last season. Mockobee and Tracy combined for 1,523 rushing yards, 14 touchdowns and 5.3 yards per carry. If Mockobee and Love can combine for similar production, having a single player with a milestone number doesn't matter.
Baird: In some ways, Purdue may be better off if neither of its top running backs reaches 1,000. That probably means both Devon Mockabee and Reggie Love III stayed healthy and productive all season. They are key to forcing defenses to respect both halves of the offense. Either of these guys could reach 1,000 as the lead back if the other can't play for an extended stretch. The best thing for Purdue, though, is the balance and explosiveness they get from both. They would gladly let that streak extend another year if it means it pushes them back toward a winning season.
Glenesk: Switching to the other side of the ball. We know what Dillon Thieneman brings, but there was a lot of offseason movement on defense. Ryan Walters has a specific scheme. What needs to happen for us to see a better version of it in Year 2?
Baird: It needs to show it succeeded in two big offseason missions: Making over a pass rush which lost Nic Scourton to transfer and upgrading the talent at cornerback. Carmel grad Will Heldt is poised to lead that first endeavor, but sh*tta Sillah (Boston College) and CJ Madden (Georgia) have also impressed interchangeably in camp. While the overall depth at cornerback has clearly improved, the enticing upside comes from two former top prospects. Nyland Green transferred in from Georgia and immediately added size, athleticism and a confident, aggressive play style. If he can neutralize other teams' top targets, Ryan Walters' attacking defense could make things tough on quarterbacks. While Green has been out with a foot injury, true freshman Tarrion Grant has stepped up and taken first-team reps. If both former top-100 corners play like it — and this pass rush remains feisty — this suddenly becomes a very intriguing defense.
King: Purdue's defense has to limit the big plays. Between Dillon Thieneman, Kydran Jenkins, the now departed Nic Scourton and Baltimore Ravens draft pick Sanoussi Kane, the Boilers had four of the best defensive players in the Big Ten. So why was Purdue among the bottom when it came to overall defense? In its eight losses, Purdue allowed 111 plays of 10 or more yards. Forty-six of those went for at least 20 yards. And we're not even counting the 16 penalties that allowed free double-digit yardage. At least five of those losses were winnable games. Eliminate even a fraction of those huge chunk plays and Purdue would've been a bowl team last season.
Glenesk: Finish this thought: Purdue makes a bowl game if...
King: In short, wins at Oregon State on Sept. 21. That likely has the Boilermakers entering Big Ten play 2-1 and I think it would catapult Purdue going into a game it is capable of winning versus Nebraska. The long answer, though, a lot of variables come in to play here. Purdue upgraded its overall talent and while it does have more depth than last season, it can't afford to lose top end talent to injury long term. The top tier players on the roster have to be on the field in those games where the other side has equitable skill. If that is the case and Purdue can eliminate some of its bugaboos (third down struggles both offensively and defensively, mainly), it will win six games.
Baird: Ryan Walters's defense takes a significant step forward in Year 2. Last season this was one of the worst teams in the Big Ten in a multitude of crucial stats: Yards per play allowed (11th), chunk plays allowed (12th), third down defense (12th), red zone defense (11th). Even if you believe Card and his added passing weapons elevate the offense, that defensive performance simply puts too much pressure on the offense to play perfect. Jenkins and Thieneman provide an All-Big Ten-level backbone in the middle. The scheme showed it can be disruptive via tackles for loss and takeaways. Now it must tighten up and make opponents earn every point. It's the single-biggest key to going 6-2 or better against the non-super powers on the schedule. It's also the biggest key to shocking one of them.
This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Purdue football enters 2024 season with Big 10 last-place predictions
